Analysis complete
Strong Buy
Buyer-focused verdict, confidence range, comparable sales, and offer ceiling in one readable view.
Price verdict
Asking price is supported
Use the estimate, confidence range, and inspection findings before deciding your offer ceiling.
No AVM is bulletproof. Use this as decision support with inspection, appraisal, financing, and legal review before committing.
Comparable sale signal
Price support at a glance
Score Breakdown
What moves the price
Data mode
Preview exampleThis preview uses example data. Paid reports show where each number came from.
Offer plan
Buyer-safe offer ladderOpening offer $477,160, safe offer $478,800, walk-away $495,200.
Comparable homes
12 used · 0 excludedFiltered for similarity, distance, recency, and adjustment risk.
Estimate checks
4 valuation checks usedTwellie explains the price logic; inspection, appraisal, and your final decision still matter.
How the price was checked
See what moved the number
| Signal | Value | How it changes the buyer decision | Where it came from |
|---|---|---|---|
| Relevant sales 12 used · 0 excluded |
$487,000 | Sets the fair-value center after similarity, recency, size, and adjustment filters. | Preview example |
| Ask vs supportable value Fair Price |
+$12,000 | Seller is asking above the estimate, so the report recommends discipline before chasing. | Ask price compared with estimate |
| Confidence band Range widens when data is thin |
±$8,200 | Creates the buffer between fair value, buyer-safe offer, and walk-away ceiling. | Estimate range + data quality |
| Offer ladder Opening · safe · walk-away |
$477,160 → $495,200 | Turns valuation into a decision path: start, defend, stop. | Buyer offer guide |
Accuracy tracking
Accuracy needs closed-sale proof
Twellie should only publish market accuracy after enough homes are matched to their later sale prices. This preview stays clear about what is known now and what still needs proof.
Now
Every report says whether the estimate uses verified market data, partial data, or preview examples, and shows which homes were used or excluded.
Next
Compare reports against later sale prices and publish error ranges by market.
Coverage
Use licensed listing and sale records before claiming full coverage in a city.
Property history
5 recorded events
TX is a non-disclosure state — sale prices on recorded deeds aren't public.
View full 5-event timeline
Price reduced
2026-04-08
From $510,000 · −2.2%
$499,000
Listed for sale
2026-02-27
MLS-2026-78701-742 · 23 days on market
$510,000
Withdrawn from market
2024-09-15
Listed at $525K · 47 days on market
Sold (recorded)
2018-06-22
Warranty Deed · last 6 yrs +60.6% per FHFA HPI
$310,000
Sold (recorded)
2009-04-14
Warranty Deed
$192,500
Payment breakdown
Monthly cost
Estimated
$—
Adjust price · down · rate · taxes · insurance
Principal & interest
$—
$—
Mortgage insurance
$0
$0
Mortgage insurance is usually required for down payments below 20%. Estimated at 0.5% of loan balance annually.
Property taxes
$—
$—
$499,000 × 1.18% = $5,888/yr
Preview data. Sample number for preview only.
Home insurance
$
Estimated only, not a carrier quote. The model starts near 0.4% of home value annually and adjusts for state, visible age, roof risk, and hazard flags. Coastal storm-exposure zones (FL/LA/TX) can run materially higher.
HOA fees
$
Sample HOA value for preview only. HOA fees may include property taxes on listings classified as Co-Ops. Verify with the listing agent.
Utilities
$
Typical for a 2140 sqft home: $200–500/mo (electric, gas, water, internet, trash). Varies by climate + occupants.
Payment math is a planning estimate. Mortgage data per Freddie Mac PMMS as of 2026-04-25. Tax, HOA, insurance, utilities, and maintenance must be verified before closing.
Location intel
Climate risks & neighborhood
FEMA flood zone
Zone X (unshaded)
Minimal-risk flood area per FEMA NFHL.
Neighborhood
Trousdale Estates
Austin, TX · ZIP 78701
Flood risk comes from FEMA NFHL. Wildfire and extreme-heat coverage are on the methodology roadmap.
How we got to $487,000
The buyer-friendly math behind the estimate.
Starting point
$233/sqft
Median of 12 similar nearby sales,
adjusted for recency + fit
Subject sqft
2,140
From available property records
and listing data
Sales-based value
$498,620
Before home-specific
adjustments
Adjustments
9 line items · $498,620 anchor → $487,000 final
Kitchen remodel
Quartz, soft-close. NAR 2025: 71-86% recoup.
+$8.4K
Lot 12% larger
7,200 sqft vs 6,420 median · $8/sqft of dirt.
+$6.2K
Walk Score 72 vs 64
$480/point above local mean (Redfin 2024).
+$3.8K
Owned solar (paid off)
7.2 kW · transferable warranty thru 2034.
+$5.5K
Master bath dated (Grade C)
$4-7K refresh expected · staining at base.
−$4.2K
Roof 14 yrs · 2 hail claims
Replacement window 3-7 yrs · ~$14K.
−$8.4K
No 2nd parking spot
Comp median 2-car · subject 1 + driveway.
−$5.8K
23 days on market
0.3%/wk softness past local median DOM.
−$5.2K
High-traffic corner lot
East Riverside × Oakwood · 8,400 ADT (TxDOT 2024) · 1.5% corner discount in this micro-market.
−$11.4K
Net adjustments
+$24.0K positive · −$35.0K negative
−$11,020
Estimate built from 4 checks
Different checks, similar answers — that's why we're confident.
Similar sold homes (45% influence)
$487,600
12 nearby sales from the past 90 days, adjusted for size, beds, age, lot size, and condition.
Home features + market (25% influence)
$489,200
Checks size, beds, baths, age, lot, school rating, walkability, and recent Travis County sale patterns.
Past sale + market growth (15% influence)
$481,800
Last sold in 2018 for $342,000. Local prices rose about 41%, implying roughly $482K today.
Rental value check (15% influence)
$489,000
Similar rentals are about $2,950/mo. That supports a value around $489K and keeps the price sensible for an investor.
Final blend
Blended by evidence quality, source availability, and agreement between checks. When evidence is thin or checks disagree, the range widens and the offer ceiling becomes more conservative.
Final estimate
$487,000
Estimated range: $478,800 – $495,200
Aggressive offer
$469,000
−6% vs ask. Likely countered. Use only if a second buyer drops out and you're the only offer at week 4+.
Recommended offer
$481,000
−3.6% vs ask. Threads the needle: defensible from comps, leaves room for repair credits, gets accepted ~70% of the time at this DOM.
Walk-away cap
$495,000
If you must have this house. Above $495K you're paying a premium the evidence does not support.
Repair credit target
$7,500
Appraisal-gap risk
$0
Buyer-safe price
$480,000
Seller credit ask
$7,500
Comparable sales
4 sold in the last 90 days within ½ mile
Currently for sale nearby
How active competition appears in a real report
Active
$489,000
−$10K851 Magnolia St · 0.3 mi
Recently dropped $10K. Slightly larger sqft + 2-car garage. Direct competitor.
Pending
$485,000
in escrow1240 Oakwood Dr · 0.4 mi
Went under contract Apr 21 at $485K. Closest live signal on what your seller will actually accept.
Active
Stale
$525,000
+$26K vs you901 Cedar Ct · 0.5 mi
Listed 62 days, no offers. Sellers asking past peak. Use as your "see what overpricing looks like" negotiation tool.
Contingent
$472,500
option pending414 Pine St · 0.6 mi
Buyer in option period (TX). 1-in-7 contingent deals fall through — backup-offer opportunity.
Local price position
This home sits near the center of matched sales
Twellie compares the subject's $/sqft with nearby comparable sales. The dark marker shows this home; the soft bars show where the local market clusters.
Market position
58thPercentile by $/sqftAgainst median
+$2$/sqft from local medianLocal spread
$11Typical $/sqft movementMedian $/sqft
$231Baseline for this cohortNeighborhood map
Subject plus nearby comp signals
Pins show the property, sample sale comps, and preview listing status signals. The map is for location context; the valuation still depends on the comp adjustment ledger.
Mapped signals
8 Preview sale and listing pinsClosest sold
0.13 mi 722 Oakwood · $478KNext closest
0.21 mi 1240 Oakwood · $485KMedian $/sqft
$231 Preview cohort baselineMarket pulse
Austin pricing trend
A quick read on whether local sellers have leverage, or whether buyers can ask for more room without guessing.
Sale pace
17days +5 days vs 90d agoClose ratio
97.4% -1.8 pts vs 90d agoPrice cuts
31% +9 pts more sellers adjustingSupply
42homes +14% active inventoryWhat this means: Austin is not an automatic overpay market. When days on market rise and more sellers cut prices, the safer move is to anchor your offer to comps, protect your ceiling, and ask for room where the listing shows weakness.
Property profile
This home vs comp average
Every row compares the subject with the same comparable cohort used elsewhere in the report. Sage means the subject is above the cohort average; clay means it trails.
Cohort fit
4/4 Profile signals above the comparable average. This does not set the price alone; it explains why the comp-adjusted estimate moves up or down.Sqft
2,140 vs 2,055 avg
Lot size
7,200 vs 6,420 avg
Vintage
2008 vs 2002 avg
Condition
B+ vs B avg
Read: The subject is above the comp average on 4 of 4 profile checks. These profile deltas should support the estimate, not replace comps, inspection, appraisal, financing, or buyer judgment.
Photo condition analysis
AI graded every room from the listing photos
Kitchen
Score 9.1 / 10Recently remodeled. Quartz counters, soft-close cabinets, gas range. No deferred maintenance flagged.
Living room
Score 8.0 / 10Engineered hardwood, dated baseboards. Some wear near patio door — minor refinish, $400-700.
Master bath
Score 6.4 / 10Original tile, builder-grade vanity, water staining around shower base. Budget $4-7k for refresh.
Risk profile
What could go wrong, and how worried to be
Flood
Zone X · Outside SFHA
Insurance optional · ~$249/yr if elected (NFIP preferred).
Hurricane / Storm
Hail-belt
No notable storm exposure on record.
Property tax burden
1.18% rate
$5,888/yr · vs national median 1.10%.
HOA
Unknown
No HOA record returned, so this is not confirmed zero.
Neighborhood
Trousdale Estates · Austin
72
Walk
45
Transit
68
Bike
Schools
Travis Heights Elementary
PK-5 · 0.4 mi
Lively Middle School
6-8 · 1.1 mi
Travis High School
9-12 · 1.8 mi
Cost of ownership
$3,768/ month
Assumes 20% down, 30-yr fixed at 6.40%. Treat unknown HOA, insurance, maintenance, and utilities as diligence items, not guaranteed costs.
Recommended offer
$481,000 — with these contingencies
Offer price
$481,000
3.6% under ask
Earnest money
$9,000
2% of offer · held in escrow
Option period
10 days
$200 fee · TX standard
Why this offer works
23 days on market signals softness. Most Austin homes in this price band sell in 14–28 days. Past 30, sellers typically entertain 2–4% off ask; past 60, 5–8%.
Texas option period. Lock the 10-day inspection window — leverage for repair credits without losing earnest money if you walk.
Hail-belt state (TX). Ask the seller for a recent roof inspection report. TX averages $14K hail-replacement claims; budget for a new roof if the current one is past 12 years.
Negotiation leverage
Balanced — no clear advantage.
No strong leverage signals on either side — proceed at the recommended offer price.
Next steps
Six things to do this week
Send the offer at $481,000
Draft offer letter is in your workspace. Includes 10 days option period, $9,000 earnest money, 30-day close, financing + appraisal contingencies.
You · ~15 min · no cost
Get pre-approved on a mortgage
Sellers in Austin discount no-pre-approval offers by ~3% — that's $14,430 of leverage walking away. Shortlisted lenders are in your workspace.
You + lender · ~30 min · free
Schedule the home inspection
Texas option period clock starts at offer acceptance. Typical fee $450–$650 for a 2140 sqft home; on-site time 3 hr. Findings feed straight into the inspection-response generator.
Inspector · 3 hr on-site · $450–$650
Choose a title company
In TX, the buyer chooses the title company. Look for <30-day closes and strong wire-fraud controls. Estimated cost $1,247 at close (0.25% of price).
You · ~10 min · ~$1,247 at close
Send the seller their net sheet
If they push back on $481,000, show them what they actually walk away with. Often the difference between $481,000 and $499,000 is much smaller after closing costs — unlocks the deal.
Their agent · ~5 min · no cost
Watch for fall-through opportunities
~1 in 7 contingent / pending deals fall through. If a nearby home with similar specs goes contingent, set an alert — you've already done the underwriting and can move fast.
You · ~10 min · no commitment
Preview report rendered with example data. Paid reports show which sources were available and may include listing data, comparable-sale evidence, FEMA flood data, neighborhood signals, and visible photo-condition notes. Run yours →